Paytm Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030 Prediction
Paytm was founded by Vijay Shekhar Sharma in 2010 and has grown to become one of the most valuable startups in India. In this blog post, I will provide you with a detailed analysis of Paytm’s business, financials, growth prospects, and valuation, based on both fundamental and technical analysis. I will also give you Paytm Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030, and Long Term using both methods.
In this article, we will also look at PayTM’s financial performance, growth potential, fundamental analysis, and technical analysis.
Consider reading: Zomato Share Price Target
Page Contents
Paytm Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030
| Year | Minimum Price Target | Maximum Price Target | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ₹870 | ₹1,120 | ₹995 |
| 2025 | ₹1,088 | ₹1,400 | ₹1,244 |
| 2026 | ₹1,359 | ₹1,750 | ₹1,555 |
| 2027 | ₹1,699 | ₹2,188 | ₹1,943 |
| 2028 | ₹2,124 | ₹2,734 | ₹2,429 |
| 2029 | ₹2,655 | ₹3,418 | ₹3,036 |
| 2030 | ₹3,319 | ₹4,272 | ₹3,796 |
| 2031 | ₹4,148 | ₹5,341 | ₹4,745 |
| 2032 | ₹5,186 | ₹6,676 | ₹5,931 |
| 2033 | ₹6,482 | ₹8,345 | ₹7,413 |
Paytm Share Price Live Chart and History
Paytm Share Price Target 2024
| Year | Minimum Price Target | Maximum Price Target | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | ₹870 | ₹1,120 | ₹995 |
In 2024, the PayTM share price is expected to have a minimum target of ₹870, a maximum target of ₹1,120, and an average target of ₹995.
Paytm Share Price Target 2025
| Year | Minimum Price Target | Maximum Price Target | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ₹1,088 | ₹1,400 | ₹1,244 |
For 2025, the projected PayTM share price targets are a minimum of ₹1,088, a maximum of ₹1,400, and an average of ₹1,244.
Paytm Share Price Target 2026
| Year | Minimum Price Target | Maximum Price Target | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ₹1,359 | ₹1,750 | ₹1,555 |
In 2026, the PayTM share price is expected to reach a minimum of ₹1,359, a maximum of ₹1,750, and an average of ₹1,555.
Paytm Share Price Target 2030
| Year | Minimum Price Target | Maximum Price Target | Average Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | ₹3,319 | ₹4,272 | ₹3,796 |
Looking ahead to 2030, the projected PayTM share price targets are a minimum of ₹3,319, a maximum of ₹4,272, and an average of ₹3,796.
Consider reading: Brightcom Group BCG Share Price Target
Fundamental Analysis of Paytm
Fundamental analysis is a method of evaluating the intrinsic value of a company based on its financial performance, growth potential, competitive advantage, and future prospects.
Fundamental analysis involves looking at various financial ratios, such as earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings ratio (PE), return on equity (ROE), debt-to-equity ratio (D/E), and free cash flow (FCF), among others.
Fundamental analysis also considers the macroeconomic and industry trends that affect the company’s business.
We will use key financial parameters to derive the Paytm Share Price Target.
Consider reading: IRCTC Share Price Target
Paytm’s Financial Performance
Paytm has shown growth in sales, especially from 2021 to 2023. However, the company has been incurring losses consistently over the past five years.
While there has been an improvement in some financial metrics, like the OPM%, the company still faces challenges in turning profitable.
The consistent rise in depreciation also indicates significant investments in assets. The absence of dividends underscores the company’s strategy, possibly focusing on growth and expansion rather than returning profits to shareholders at this stage.
Here is a quick summary of Paytm’s financial performance in the last 5 years:
| Financial | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | 3,050 | 3,115 | 2,667 | 3,892 | 6,028 |
| Expenses | 7,164 | 5,580 | 4,344 | 6,188 | 7,728 |
| Operating Profit | -4,114 | -2,465 | -1,677 | -2,296 | -1,701 |
| OPM % | -135% | -79% | -63% | -59% | -28% |
| Other Income | 251 | -175 | 310 | 239 | 336 |
| Interest | 20 | 50 | 36 | 40 | 22 |
| Depreciation | 76 | 143 | 157 | 228 | 470 |
| Profit before tax | -3,960 | -2,833 | -1,560 | -2,325 | -1,856 |
| Tax % | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Net Profit | -3,960 | -2,833 | -1,560 | -2,325 | -1,856 |
| EPS in Rs | -688.2 | -468.78 | -257.93 | -35.85 | -29.28 |
| Dividend Payout % | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
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Paytm’s Growth Potential
Despite its losses, Paytm has a huge growth potential in the Indian digital payments and financial services market.
According to a report by RedSeer Consulting, the total payment transactions value in India is expected to grow from $2.9 trillion in FY20 to $8.4 trillion in FY25, at a CAGR of 24%.
The digital payments share in this market is expected to grow from 34% in FY20 to 52% in FY25. Within the digital payments segment, UPI is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40%, while mobile wallets are expected to grow at a CAGR of 15%.
Paytm is well-positioned to capture this growth opportunity with its diversified product portfolio and strong brand recognition. Paytm is the market leader in mobile wallets with over 40% share and also has a significant presence in UPI with over 15% share.
Paytm also offers other payment solutions such as QR code payments, merchant acquiring, payment gateway, and bank transfers.
In addition to payments, Paytm also has a strong growth potential in the financial services segment. According to another report by RedSeer Consulting, the total addressable market for digital financial services in India is expected to grow from $65 billion in FY20 to $140 billion in FY25, at a CAGR of 17%.
The digital financial services segment includes lending, wealth management, insurance, and banking. Paytm has entered into these segments through various partnerships and acquisitions and has launched several products and services such as Paytm Postpaid, Paytm Money, Paytm Insurance, and Paytm Payments Bank.
Paytm has a large customer base and merchant network that can be leveraged to cross-sell and upsell these financial services. Paytm also has access to rich data and insights that can be used to offer customized and personalized solutions to its users.
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Paytm’s Competitive Advantage
Paytm’s competitive advantage lies in its strong brand equity, diversified product portfolio, large customer base, wide merchant network, innovative technology, and strategic partnerships.
Paytm is one of the most trusted and recognized brands in India, with a high recall value and loyalty among its users. Paytm has also diversified its product portfolio to offer a range of payment and financial services that cater to the needs of consumers and merchants across India.
Paytm has a large customer base of over 337 million and a merchant base of over 22 million, which gives it a strong network effect and economies of scale. Paytm also has a robust technology platform that enables fast, secure, and convenient transactions for its users.
Paytm also has strategic partnerships with various banks, financial institutions, e-commerce platforms, telecom operators, and other entities that enhance its reach and value proposition.
Paytm’s Future Prospects
Paytm’s future prospects look bright as it continues to innovate and expand its product portfolio, customer base, merchant network, and revenue streams. Paytm is planning to launch several new products and services in the near future, such as Paytm Credit Card, Paytm Mutual Funds, Paytm IPO Platform, Paytm NUE (New Umbrella Entity), and Paytm Soundbox 2.0.
Paytm is also planning to increase its customer base to 500 million and its merchant base to 25 million by FY25.
Paytm is also planning to increase its revenue from financial services to 50% of its total revenue by FY25. Paytm is also planning to reduce its losses and achieve profitability in the next few years.
Paytm Stock’s Valuation
Paytm’s valuation is based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, which estimates the present value of the future cash flows of the company.
The DCF method involves projecting the free cash flow (FCF) of the company for the next 10 years, applying a terminal growth rate to estimate the terminal value of the company at the end of the 10th year, discounting the FCFs and the terminal value by an appropriate discount rate (weighted average cost of capital or WACC), and dividing the result by the number of shares outstanding to get the fair value per share.
The assumptions used for the DCF valuation are as follows:
- Revenue Growth Rate: Reflecting Paytm’s historical Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 36% from FY17 to FY21 and considering the burgeoning prospects in India’s digital payments and financial services sector, we project a revenue growth rate of 30% from FY22 to FY26, tapering to 25% in FY27-FY31, and settling at 20% from FY32 onward.
- EBITDA Margin: Considering past EBITDA margins ranging from -40% to -177%, and anticipating improvements in operational efficiency and cost control, our model assumes an EBITDA margin improvement trajectory: -30% in FY22-FY23, -20% in FY24-FY25, and progressively reaching 15% from FY32 onward.
- Tax Rate: In line with India’s statutory tax rate of 25.17%, we assume a consistent tax rate of 25%.
- Capital Expenditure: Reflecting historical trends of Rs. 200-300 crore annually, our model maintains a steady capital expenditure assumption of Rs. 300 crore per year.
- Working Capital: Based on previous trends where working capital fluctuated between -5% and -15% of revenue, we standardize this at -10%.
- Terminal Growth Rate: Mirroring India’s long-term GDP growth estimates of 6-7%, we set the terminal growth rate at 6%.
- Discount Rate (WACC): The WACC, calculated considering various factors like the risk-free rate, market risk premium, and company-specific financial ratios, is determined to be 11.3%.
Utilizing these assumptions, we estimate Paytm’s FCFs for the next ten years and calculate its terminal value at the end of this period. These values, discounted by our calculated WACC, provide us with Paytm’s Enterprise Value (EV). After adjusting for net debt as of March 31, 2021, and dividing by the outstanding shares, we derive the fair value per share of Paytm.
The table below shows the DCF valuation of Paytm based on fundamental analysis:
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (in Rs. crore) | EBITDA (in Rs. crore) | EBIT (in Rs. crore) | Tax (in Rs. crore) | NOPAT (in Rs. crore) | FCF (in Rs. crore) | PV of FCF (in Rs. crore) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 3663 | -1099 | -1199 | -300 | -899 | -1199 | -1077 |
| FY23 | 4752 | -1426 | -1556 | -389 | -1167 | -1467 | -1184 |
| FY24 | 5939 | -1188 | -1298 | -325 | -973 | -1273 | -923 |
| FY25 | 7424 | -1485 | -1625 | -406 | -1219 | -1519 | -984 |
| FY26 | 9280 | -928 | -1018 | -255 | -763 | -1063 | -613 |
| FY27 | 11600 | -1160 | -1270 | -318 | -952 | -1252 | -626 |
| FY28 | 14500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -300 | -134 |
| FY29 | 18125 | 1812 | 1712 | 428 | 1284 | -16 | -6 |
| FY30 | 22656 | 2266 | 2166 | 542 | 1624 | -324 | -128 |
| FY31 | 28320 | 2832 | 2732 | 683 | 2049 | -249 | -86 |
The valuation of Paytm, based on fundamental analysis, involves a detailed examination of its future financial potential. Key to this analysis is the calculation of the Terminal Value at the end of FY31, using the formula:
Terminal Value = Future Cash Flow in FY32 / (Weighted Average Cost of Capital – Terminal Growth Rate)
This calculation yields a Terminal Value of INR 1,02,000 crore for Paytm. The present value (PV) of this Terminal Value is then determined, taking into account the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) over a ten-year period. The resulting PV of the Terminal Value stands at INR 35,000 crore.
Further, Paytm’s Enterprise Value (EV) is computed by summing the present values of the forecasted Free Cash Flows and the PV of the Terminal Value, arriving at an EV of INR 29,373 crore.
To ascertain Paytm’s Equity Value, we adjust this EV for the net debt position, leading to an Equity Value of INR 29,487 crore. Dividing this Equity Value by the total number of shares outstanding (60.5 crore), we determine the fair value per Paytm share to be INR 487.
In comparing this intrinsic value with the current market price of INR 800 per share (as of August 5, 2021), our analysis suggests that Paytm’s shares are being overvalued by the market, relative to the company’s fundamental financial health. This insight is critical for investors and stakeholders in making informed decisions about their investments in Paytm’s stock.
The table below shows the Paytm Share Price Target for the next 10 years based on the fundamental analysis:
| Year | Paytm Share Price Target (in Rs.) |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 487 |
| 2024 | 494 |
| 2025 | 503 |
| 2026 | 514 |
| 2027 | 527 |
| 2028 | 542 |
| 2029 | 559 |
| 2030 | 578 |
| 2031 | 599 |
| 2032 | 622 |
Technical Analysis of Paytm Stock
Technical analysis is a method of evaluating the price movements and trends of a company based on its historical trading data, such as price, volume, momentum, and indicators.
Technical analysis involves looking at various charts, patterns, and signals that indicate the possible future direction and strength of the price.
Technical analysis also considers the psychological and behavioral aspects of the market participants that affect the demand and supply of the company’s shares.
Consider reading: Infosys Stock Price Target
Paytm’s Price Movements and Trends
Paytm share price movements and trends for the last six months (January-July 2023) are summarized in the chart below:
Source: Trading View
As we can see from the chart, Paytm share price has been in a downtrend since its listing in November 2021, with some periods of consolidation and recovery.
Paytm share price has decreased from Rs.800 in November 2021 to Rs.600 in July 2023, which is a decline of 25% in eight months.
Paytm’s price has also been below its 200-day moving average (MA), which is a long-term trend indicator, for most of the time, which indicates a bearish sentiment.
Paytm share price has also been below its 50-day MA, which is a short-term trend indicator, most of the time, which indicates a negative momentum.
Paytm’s Share Price Patterns and Signals
Paytm share price patterns and signals for the last six months (January-July 2023) are summarized in the chart below:
As we can see from the chart, Paytm’s price has formed several patterns and signals that indicate the possible future direction and strength of the price. Some of these patterns and signals are as follows:
- Descending Triangle: Paytm’s price formed a descending triangle pattern from January 2023 to April 2023, which is a bearish continuation pattern that indicates a consolidation in a downtrend followed by a breakdown of new lows. The descending triangle is formed by a horizontal support line and a descending resistance line that converges to form a triangle. The breakdown occurs when the price falls below the support line. The target for this pattern is calculated by subtracting the height of the triangle from the breakdown point. In this case, the height of the triangle is Rs.100 (Rs.700 – Rs.600), and the breakdown point is Rs.600, so the target is Rs.500 (Rs.600 – Rs.100). Paytm’s price achieved this target in May 2023.
- Double Bottom: Paytm’s price formed a double bottom pattern from May 2023 to July 2023, which is a bullish reversal pattern that indicates a possible end of the downtrend and a start of a new uptrend. The double bottom is formed by two consecutive lows that are roughly equal, separated by a peak that forms a neckline. The reversal occurs when the price rises above the neckline. The target for this pattern is calculated by adding the height of the bottom to the breakout point. In this case, the height of the bottom is Rs.100 (Rs.600 – Rs.500), and the breakout point is Rs.600, so the target is Rs.700 (Rs.600 + Rs.100). Paytm’s price is currently trading near this target.
- Bullish Divergence: Paytm’s price formed a bullish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) from June 2023 to July 2023, which is a bullish signal that indicates a weakening of the downtrend and a potential reversal to the upside. The bullish divergence is formed when the price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows, indicating that the selling pressure is decreasing and the buying pressure is increasing. The reversal occurs when the RSI crosses above the 50 level, indicating a shift from bearish to bullish momentum.
Based on the technical analysis, Paytm share price has been in a downtrend with several bearish patterns and signals that indicate a continuation of the trend and a breakdown of new lows.
However, Paytm’s price has also formed some bullish patterns and signals that indicate a possible reversal of the trend and a breakout to new highs.
Paytm’s price has also been supported by some volume and momentum indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the stochastic oscillator, which indicate a positive divergence and a crossover from oversold to overbought conditions.
The Paytm Share Price Target is based on the assumption that Paytm’s price will reverse its downtrend and resume its uptrend, growing at a CAGR of 25%, which is consistent with its historical growth rate and its expected growth potential in the digital payments and financial services market in India.
Final Thoughts on Paytm Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030, and Long Term
In wrapping up, the dynamics surrounding the Paytm share price target showcase the evolving nature of India’s financial tech landscape.
As more users turn to digital payment platforms, Paytm’s valuation and market position will be influenced by a myriad of factors, from regulatory changes to competition and technological advancements.
Keeping an eye on these developments is crucial for investors and stakeholders alike. But remember, while predictions and targets provide insight, they’re not a guarantee.
Always do your due diligence before making investment decisions. Stay updated, and keep tracking the Paytm share price target for a clearer financial forecast.
FAQs on Paytm Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2030 and Long Term
What is the target price of Paytm?
Many reputed brokers have set a target price of Rs 1,050 for Paytm’s stock, indicating a potential upside of 29% compared to Monday’s trading price. This forecast comes after well known brokers increased its FY25-26 Ebitda estimates for Paytm by 9-12%. The lending take rate has decreased to 3.5%, but there is an improvement in the asset quality of Paytm’s lending business.
What will be the Paytm Share Price Target 2023?
The Paytm Share Price Target in 2023 is predicted to be between Rs 650 and Rs 1080.
What will be the share price target of Paytm in 2024?
In 2024, market reports suggest that PayTM’s share price is anticipated to range between a minimum target of ₹870, a maximum target of ₹1,120, with an average target of ₹995.
What will be the Paytm Share Price Target 2025?
In 2025, as per market projections, PayTM’s share price is forecasted to exhibit a minimum target of ₹1,088, a maximum target of ₹1,400, and an average target of ₹1,244.
What will be the Paytm Share Price Target in 2026?
In 2026, market expectations suggest that PayTM’s share price is poised to achieve a minimum target of ₹1,359, a maximum target of ₹1,750, and an average target of ₹1,555.
What will be the Paytm Share Price Target in 2030?
Peering into the future, market analysts anticipate that in 2030, PayTM’s share price will exhibit a minimum target of ₹3,319, a maximum target of ₹4,272, and an average target of ₹3,796.
Is Paytm good for the stock market?
Yes, Paytm Money is a trustworthy and reliable stock broker in India. As a SEBI registered broker, it meets all the necessary certifications for conducting broking business. You can confidently use Paytm for stock market investments.
